I am a senior Transport Modeller and Planner with over 35 years of experience on public transport, logistics, rail, and highway engineering projects. I am a Member of the Institution of Highways and Transportation (MIHT). I specialise in transport modelling, strategic multi-modal transport studies, transport master planning, demand and revenue forecasting, and scheme appraisal to TAG (UK DfT's Transport Analysis Guidance) standards. I have taken several schemes through from initial feasibility study to UK Treasury approval, to construction.
I provide project and technical leadership for the teams I work with, to produce high quality, well documented work within time and budget constraints, often working within challenging environments.
I use new innovations in modelling and data capture to better represent transport trends and build public transport systems to encourage modal shift away from private cars. I am familiar with Activity Based Models, Mobility as a Service, and the use of Big Data to build travel demand matrices. My models provide insights into complex travel movements, but also consider other factors increasingly needing analysis such as equality, sustainability, land use, new technologies, behavior, environmental impacts and climate change.
Since 1996 I have been working freelance, combining transport planning and work as an IT consultant and trainer.
This web site CV is quite an exhaustive list of projects I have undertaken. A summary of my transport planning experience, tailored to individual proposals, is available on request
VISUM, EMME, CUBE, SATURN, OMNITRANS
Accredited to use TfL's strategic transport models RAILPLAN, HAMs, One, MoTiON
Applications written in: Python (inc. Pandas), Javascript, Perl, VB.NET, PHP, SQL.
Expert user of PostgreSQL, PostGIS, Microsoft SQL Server, MySQL, Access, Excel. Specialist in the development of data and web applications. See also my IT Consultancy experience.
Croydon Purley Way (Stantec for TfL - May 2022-present)
Using Transport for London's strategic transport models an assessment of plans for the long-term regeneration of Croydon town centre and the development of Purley Way is required. Hugh is conducting a local model audit of Railplan (TfL's Emme public transport network) which includes a revalidation of AM tram services, and an appraisal of the impact of these new developments.
Brabazon, North Bristol (Momentum Transport Planning for YTL Developments - November 2021 - present)
Strategic Modelling Advisor for this large mixed-use development in north Bristol. Using Emme and Saturn models to review highway and public transport provision as part of the planning application process.
Development in Mid-Sussex (Ardent Consulting Engineers - Nov-Dec 2022)
Advising client on strategic modelling aspects of District Plan decisions. An existing Saturn model was interrogated, and tests for alternative highway layouts completed and reported on.
Intercity Bus Franchise Competition Support (Direx Solutions, June-August 2022)
The Saudi Arabian Transport General Authority (TGA) invited bids to run Intercity bus services throughout the country. As part of a wider team of bus operation specialists, I advised a major European bus operator on the forecasting and economics of each of the 3 concession areas. References were made to an existing national model, TGA forecasts and minimum service requirements, and opportunities for expansion provided by new tourist strategies and Vision 2030 initiatives. The operator won their preferred concession.
Mobility Demand Expert (Kearney for NEOM - October 2021 - present)
Advisor for large mega-development in Saudi Arabia, creating initial demand forecasts and advising on transport planning issues. This carless development is providing a range of mobility solutions, from first/last mile to mass transit; all of them low carbon, most of them innovative. Helped advise on the implementation of these mobility solutions, to cater for both early residents and employers as well as the final full build out.
Study and Review of Crowd Movements in Makkah Haram (Dar Al-Handasah for Ministry of Finance - June 2021-September 2022)
Updating a VISUM model of Makkah to recalibrate a weekday model to represent Fridays. Forecast model will include several different scenarios including Ramadan, and Hajj. Model will plan new public transport services and must consider the unique features of Makkah as the holiest Muslim city.
East West Rail (Arups for EWR Ltd. - Feb 2021 to October 2021)
Modelling advisor for the development of a highway model (Saturn) to estimate impacts on highway network of this new railway between Oxford and Cambridge. Model focusses on new rail construction Bedford-Cambridge, taking account of recent Covid related changes to transport patterns and purposes.
VISUM pedestrian capacity tool (PTV UK, October 2020 - November 2020)
Assisting a team within PTV to enhance the capabilities of VISUM with a tool for rapid modelling of pedestrian capacity at rail stations. The tool is coded in Python, and uses the SBA assignment capabilities of VISUM.
Kuwait 2040 Master Plan (Dar Al-Handasah for Kuwait Municipality - September 2017 to December 2020)
Leading the transport team, I am enabling an existing national model (Visum) to be updated to the present year, using new traffic count and journey time data, plus a significant Big Data exercise to use mobile phone data to inform new origin-destination matrices. The forecast year model will incorporate the latest planned schemes and demographic estimates, plus options for appraisal as part of the masterplanning work.
The 4th Kuwait master plan will guide the physical development of the country through a vision for it's environment, planning principles, planning strategies and key projects for implementation. The plan will operate at a range of scales (national, regional, metropolitan and municipal) with a fundamental focus on transport systems to promote productivity and sustainability. An emphasis on the utilisation of public transport schemes, and a reduction in road traffic growth is a common theme for all future scenarios.
Passenger and Freight Demand Model, UAE (Kearney - August 2020)
Review of multi-modal CUBE model and associated reporting, to provide advice on model performance. Suggestions for model improvements, including model calibration and interfaces with other regional models were made.
Brent Cross South (Arup London - July 2019 to April 2020)
Strategic transport expert for a 180-acre mixed-use neighbourhood at Brent Cross South. Used London Transportation Studies (LTS) model to create new disaggregated demand for a range of development scenarios. Created a localised version of TfL's RAILPLAN model (Emme) to appraise public transport improvements and impacts. The new neighbourhood will provide 6,700 new homes, employment and pedestrian-friendly streets. The development will be a model for how London should grow as its population increases and new homes and workspaces are required.
YTL Arena, Bristol (Momentum Transport Consultancy - June 2019 - November 2019)
Responsible for strategic modelling aspects of the planning application for a 17,000-capacity arena complex near M4/M5 junctions. Interrogated and used the Greater Bristol Area Transport Study (GBATS) model (Saturn and Emme). Liaised with Highways England and local councils to assess the impact of this major development on both the local and strategic road network.
King Abdulaziz Project for Riyadh Public Transport (Kearney for Royal Commission for Riyadh City - January 2014 to December 2019)
Riyadh is the capital of Saudi Arabia with a rapidly rising population of over 6 million and almost complete reliance on car transport. I am leading the planning of new BRT and bus services (community bus routes, plus a series of feeder buses, using both fixed routes and on-demand services) to complement the strategic, high capacity Metro and extend the accessibility of the public transport system in a city with very high temperatures during summer, and a car dependant culture.
I have an intimate knowledge of Riyadh city, as well as available travel data sources and how they can complement each other. Also familiar with key personnel and teams within RCRC that provide important inputs for transport planning in the city.
An existing Emme model is being thoroughly overhauled with a new public transport network, updates to the highway network, and new demand matrices derived from newly collected mobile phone data, land use GIS data and planning forecasts. Model outputs are being used for development of service frequencies and timetables, to create an appropriate mix of bus vehicle types for vehicle orders, and ensure that network capacity matched anticipated passenger loadings. Outputs also presented to other work streams, other consultants working for RCRC, and the RCRC itself. These outputs were used for a verity of technical developments, marketing of the PT system, and presentations to other stakeholders: for instance, an analysis of bus/Metro interchangeability for the ITS work streams, Metro contractors, and for specification of interchange facilities at Metro stations
I provided technical leadership to obtain mobile phone data from mobile operators in the City, and continued to liaise with Saudi Telecom company (STC) to enhance their capability to provide this data in the future. I developed a population distribution database derived from GIS and demographic data for the planning and financial modelling of DRT services, and developed a bus stop database for costing of network infrastructure and as input to ITS and other work streams. I also led an exercise to optimise the bus network infrastructure, whilst reducing costs. This provided improvements in bus passenger interchangeability, and cost savings of over 330 million SAR. Created database of continuous count data, and TomTom highway speed data that was used for the development of off peak, weekend and Ramadan timetables and service levels.
Transportation Masterplan for Qatar (Jacobs for Qatar MOTC - part time January 2017 to December 2018)
The Ministry of Transport and Communications in Qatar wish to build an activity based model (ABM) to inform an update of the Qatar Transport Masterplan - looking beyond the 2022 World Cup tournament. I provided modelling advice for Package 1 of this project - the collection of transport and model data. This comprehensive data collection exercise has to gather reliable and extensive data that can be used for an activity-based approach to model travel.
I then worked with the PM consultants reviewing the work of modelling consultants that are implementing the ABM into a VISUM highway and PT network. This model must create a realistic view of the comprehensive travel costs of all modes and will form part of an iterative process with the ABM components. The model will build on previous strategic transport models that have been designed for the State of Qatar, however as the first ABM to be developed in the region it will present its own unique set of challenges.
Building travel matrices from mobile phone data (Movement Strategies - August 2014 to January 2015)
Working with a UK mobile phone operator, built OD matrices using mobile phone data, supplemented by traditional transport modelling approaches. Advised on strategic modelling considerations, the shortcomings of existing data collection techniques, and suitable data to use to supplement and calibrate the mobile phone data. This large dataset required SQL Server to provide robust travel demand matrices, segmented by purpose and demographics; with an extremely high sample rate of the UK adult population.
Model and data audit - Lower Thames crossing (Hyder Consulting for Highways Agency - November 2014 to January 2015)
Helping to develop a modelling framework, to be used to inform the economic, environmental and operational appraisal of proposed options for the Lower Thames Crossing (LTC). Analysis of existing data, including mobile phone data, to be used for the construction of demand matrices, both for base and forecasting years.
Transport Master Plan - Republic of Iraq (Dar al-Handasah for Ministry of Construction & Housing - Dec. 2013 to present)
Development of VISUM multimodal model of entire country to provide a structured platform for decision makers to prepare long term policies and transport strategies. Requires innovative solutions to overcome the lack of data, and difficulties of collecting accurate, reliable up to date data that would reflect true base year demand in normal conditions.
Kuwait Western sub-region master planning (Dar al-Handasah for Kuwait Municipality - Oct. 2013 to Dec. 2013)
VISUM transport model of new area of western Kuwait to introduce housing, industry and renewable energy in a series of 'eco-towns'. Model comprised highway and public transport networks, plus a full 4 stage demand model to evaluate future traffic and ridership levels with the future developments.
Traffic Management Plan for Implementation of Arriyadh Public Transport Project (CH2M for Arriyadh Development Authority - February 2013-May 2014)
To define the impact of construction of the public transport proposals for Riyadh, an Emme model of the city was updated to latest planning projections and traffic count data, and forecast to 2015. Construction impacts are being defined and mitigated, with a series of hard measures - road closures and diversions; along with 'soft' measures - transport and land use policy changes. Construction scheduling and consultation with contractors and stakeholders was informed by this modelling excercise.
High Speed 2 - Birmingham to Leeds and Manchester (Mott Macdonald and Atkins for HS2 Ltd.- September 2010 to September 2013)
I was the modelling expert for the HS2 rail scheme in the UK as the business case model was developed. The project used a highly complex model framework (based upon the DfT's PLANET models using Emme software) developed within relatively short timeframes, to provide a business case for a new high-speed rail line between London, Birmingham, Manchester, and to Leeds via the East Midlands and South Yorkshire. I created business cases for a number of rounds of parliamentary scrutiny and public consultation. Many different operational scenarios were considered for both HS2 itself, and 'classic' rail services such as WCML and ECML. I also considered, and developed business cases for alternatives to HS2.
I worked with LENNON data to re-examine the extent of business travel on UK long distance rail and the contribution this made to scheme benefits. Validated new base year matrices, to be used as a basis for forecasting.I also enhanced model functionality. In particular, I ensured the interaction between long distance and local train passengers was modelled effectively, and benefits to users of 'classic' rail services were fully captured once HS2 is introduced. also designed and coded train reliability into the assignment model and business case.
Heathrow Airport Surface Access (Mott MacDonald for British Airports Authority- August 2009 to September 2010)
I was the lead modeller for this study to examine future rail access to Heathrow. PLANET (an Emme rail model owned by DfT) is being updated to a 2009 base year using new data collected by train operators, statutory bodies and ourselves. A new model for the PM peak is also being produced, using an SQL database that combined 2001 LATS (London Area Transport Survey) and LENNON ticket data for new matrices, and automatic techniques to produce service data from industry standard CIF (Common Interface Format) data files. These major updates to the PLANET model are required within short timescales to feed into a number of surface access strategy studies considering a range of future scenarios at Europe's major airport.
South Essex Rapid Transport (Mouchel Parkman for Essex County Council, May 2008 to April 2010)
Project Manager for the modelling aspects of this Bus Rapid Transit scheme in Basildon, Thurrock and Southend. SERT represents the largest transport intervention into the developing Thames Gateway region. Using the OmniTrans TGSE model which I managed, I am supervising the modelling inputs and created the business case for the MSBC. Advised stakeholders and wider project team on scheme patronage, economic assessment. Liaised with DfT to demonstrate our compliance with departmental standards such as WebTag and variable demand modelling.
A13 Sadlers Farm Junction Improvements (Mouchel Parkman for Essex County Council, March 2009 to March 2010)
Team Leader for the modelling and economic inputs into a conditional approval MSBC. This £63m scheme improved a major bottleneck in south Essex. The existing junction layout is a 'magic roundabout' which causes major queues on the A13 and A130 roads. A new version of the TGSE model, validating to DMRB standards in the Sadlers Farm area was produced; and this interacted with a local Paramics model, recognising that the high level of delays at this junction could not be represented in the strategic model. This has enabled us to study the strategic effects of the improvements. I also commissioned a fully webTag complaint demand model in Emme which incorporated the results of the other models, and is run to provide information about variable demand effects.
Thames Gateway South Essex Transportation Model (Mouchel Parkman for Essex County Council, December 2005 to April 2010)
Project Manager for a series of models of the Thames Gateway region in the South of Essex with a project value of over £1m including data collection. This area is a national priority for regeneration and growth over the next fifteen years, including an extra 55,000 jobs and 37,000 dwellings. The provision of high quality and reliable transport networks is fundamental to the successful delivery of these objectives. A tiered model structure was developed to look at future land-use scenarios and how these will influence future travel patterns, identify the transport schemes with the greatest benefits, to build an appropriate case for central Government funding. A strategic land use /transport interaction model (DELTA & STM) supplemented a multi modal assignment model in OmniTrans. Further operational models of specific proposals were developed in SATURN and used for CIF bids to attract DfT funding for quickly implemented schemes.
An major data collection programme was completed under my supervision, and the base year model was calibrated to DMRB/WebTag standards. The OmniTrans model was used for the Major Scheme Business Case (MSBC) of a number of specific schemes, such as South Essex Rapid Transit, and A13 Sadlers Farm Junction Improvements.
LUTE Trip End Model (Sinclair Knight Merz for Docklands Light Rail, October 2005 - December 2005)
Developed a trip end forecasting model for DLR that interfaced with a GIS system. The model was based upon a previous model which had become difficult to use, and unstable. The client required a new model which was easy for DLR staff members to use and produced reliable results that could be exported to other applications such as Excel and Access. Users can enter and edit development sites, land uses and trip rates to produce trip forecasts by mode, time period and year. The model is able to constrain growth over user defined areas, or Boroughs. The database is Microsoft SQL Server, with a web based front end. This enables selected DLR consultants to use the model outside of DLR offices, and the opportunity to share data with other transport and planning authorities. I supervised the writing of the specification, and the development of the back end database. I then developed the user interface pages in ASP.NET, and wrote the user documentation.
Cross London Route Utilisation Strategy Demand Study (Steer Davies Gleave for Network Rail, July 2005 – September 2005)
Modelling advisor for the use of the PLANET South model to identify current imbalances between demand and supply; specifically on-train overcrowding and poorly used services on the London orbital lines (North London, West London, South London, East London and the Gospel Oak-Barking Line). Reported on model revisions, development of a future year base model (including network and matrix updates), and analysis of new service options in the orbital corridors.
Stansted Airport Surface Access Study (Sinclair Knight Merz for British Airports Authority, October 2004 - June 2005)
The model was developed to support BAA in their applications for development of Stansted Airport. I was responsible for the development of the rail model, which uses new data, and data from existing rail models incorporated into a new TRIPS based mode-choice model. Zoning system and centroid connector coding was derived from MapInfo procedures, and I wrote an application in Access to transform NRM rail services data in a psudo-Emme/2 format for import into TRIPS, incorporating crowding factors derived from PLANET.
Docklands Public Transport Model (Sinclair Knight Merz for Docklands Light Rail, June 2004 - October 2004)
Responsible for the 2003 revalidation of this Emme/2 public transport model, based upon Railplan. Undertook an audit of the previous model, including coded services and the crowded assignment technique. Produced new base year matrices based upon LTS and LUTE (Land Use Trip Ends) model. I undertook an investigation of the crowded assignment macro, which had been modified from a number of macros used in Railplan. These macros, which are notoriously difficult to follow and are undocumented, have been revised over a number a years during their use in Railplan. During analysis, possible errors were identified and corrected.
London Olympics and Lower Lea Valley (Mott MacDonald for London Development Agency, October 2003 – May 2004)
Modelling specialist for the team preparing the Transport Assessment for the Planning Application of the London 2012 Olympic bid. This work was also used for the successful London 2012 bid to the International Olympic Committee. The planning application was one of the most complex ever produced in the UK and was put together in record time. This application covers both the Olympic facilities, and subsequent legacy uses and developments.
With sever time limitations; I was responsible for most of the public transport inputs and much of the highway model. Public transport analysis was based on a version of Railplan (Emme/2) that disaggregated zones in east London, and built new matrices based on the new land use assumptions in the area. I advised planners and engineers of the limitations of using a strategic tool such as Railplan for the detailed assessments required, suggesting model enhancements, and outlining the assumptions and necessary simplifications that have been made. Highway modelling was also performed on a model that was based on an existing model, developed for the East London River Crossing. This model was enhanced with greater network detail, new disaggregated zones and a new matrix.
Public transport modelling was developed further to produce detailed assessments of the impact on individual stations in the area, particularly Stratford regional station. I also liaised with the various stakeholders of the scheme to develop common base and forecast assumptions.
Integrated Kent Projects (Mott MacDonald for Strategic Rail Authority, September 2003)
Modelling specialist in a team conducting a business appraisal of CTRL Domestic Services and the Integrated Kent Franchise. This included appraising different service options and assumptions, producing demand forecasts using the PLANET model, with revenue, economic benefit and operating cost forecasts. Developed many macros and utilities for the team, and trained other members of staff in advanced use of Emme/2. I also introduced the use of scripted tools for the rapid production of Excel reports directly output from Emme/2.
North London Line (Symonds Group for Transport for London, October 2002 – September 2003)
West London Line (Symonds Group for Transport for London, October 2002 – September 2003)
West Hampstead Interchange (Symonds Group for Transport for London, October 2002 – September 2003)
Using the RAILPLAN model (TfL's strategic rail model in Emme/2) a series of tests were done to evaluate these schemes.
Safe Routes to Schools (Torbay Council May – July 2003)
Project Manager of a project to determine safer routes to all 45 schools in Torbay. Interviews were conducted with teachers from all the schools, road safety officers, and print production teams. Using MapInfo, a series of maps were drawn for each school showing the routes and other road safety features. These maps were distributed to pupils at each school. I developed an Access database that included site photos, road safety features near each school, and notes from interviews. This database was added to as new information was gathered, for the use by both the transport, and road safety teams.
Thames Valley Multi Modal Study (WS Atkins for Department for Transport, September 2001 – October 2002)
This multi modal study used a variety of models for analysis of current problems and future proposals. I developed the public transport model which was based on PLANET, but was updated to provide more up-to-date matrix information by including recent counts undertaken by the Strategic Rail Authority (SRA). I wrote an incremental LOGIT model in emme/2 for analysis of mode transfer with the introduction of new PT schemes, as well as numerous other emme/2 macros for analysis of results, and to help with coding new schemes. I also developed a highway model in SATURN, based on NAOMI - a large strategic SATURN model covering the whole of the south of England. The matrix was updated with new count data, collected for 2000.
Secondment to London Transport Planning (WS Atkins, June 1997 – September 2001)
I tested a number of proposals and model updates in RAILPLAN, the Emme/2 model used by London Transport (now TfL) to test and analyse new rail, underground and light rail/tram proposals. Projects included: A new transit scheme running from Greenwich to Abbey Wood, via the Greenwich Peninsula. An update of Railplan and a review of the 1995 validation with new model procedures. Transfer from consultants of the London Transport Air Model (Emme/2), checking and updating of model macros, and writing a new front-end macro to allow the model to be run interactively. I wrote a users manual for LT staff to run the model, and trained selected LT staff in the use of the model.
PLANETO (WS Atkins for British Railways Board, February 1997-June 1997)
I developed this model to forecast off-peak rail demand in London and the South East. The model is based on EMME/2 software, and elements of the then peak hour PLANET model. I created the model from supplied base year off peak matrices and timetables. I also built EMME/2 macros to calculate passenger crowding penalties, future year demand forecasts, analysis of assignment results and comparison of the base year model with passenger counts. I was responsible for the production of the validation report, including proposals for possible model improvements, and a user manual for the client’s use of the model.
Terminal 5 Surface Access, Heathrow Airport (WS Atkins for British Airports Authority March 1996 – February 1997)
Coding and running of a large SATURN model to assess the traffic impact of the proposed Terminal 5 on the surrounding road network.
Travers Morgan (1985 – 1996)
Transport Planner with particular responsibility for the maintenance and development of the transport planning team’s computer software and hardware.
Travers Morgan (1979 – 1985)
Civil engineering technician.
See my IT training and consultancy CV and the list of IT training courses that I teach. Also see the writing and film work I have been involved with.
Any of my previous clients would be pleased to provide references. For example, the following can be contacted for Technical and Professional references. Further references can be supplied upon request:
Dr. Christian Gasparic
Principal
A.T. Kearney Middle East, DubaiMr. Peter Watson
Director Transportation Department
Dar Al-Handasah London OfficeAlso available
IT Consultancy and Training CV